Market
Memos from Howard Marks: Ruminating on Asset AllocationWhile interest rates have captured the attention of global investors so far in 2024, so too have geopolitical events, namely a flurry of elections. This year, over half of the world’s population has taken part in democratic elections. For many businesses, a change in government leading to shifts in policy can add risk to their growth outlook.
However, infrastructure investments typically remain insulated to changes in government due to their critical nature. Moreover, if the investment manager is selective about the countries in which it invests, we believe exposure to the asset class can provide consistency in returns and help mitigate risk in an evolving geopolitical environment. Some critical characteristics of a country that should be considered before making an investment include established rule of law, strong capital markets, respect for private and foreign capital, ability to build scalable businesses, and the desire or need for private capital funding for high-quality infrastructure assets.
Moreover, we believe investors should back investment managers who focus on the following, when investing across the globe:
Global scale, with a local operating model: Maintaining a local presence and having regional expertise with “boots on the ground” in all regions helps foster deal flow and facilitates management of assets. It is important to work closely with local strategic partners to improve the understanding of regional dynamics and potentially lower the level of risk when investing in new countries.
Not all regulatory risk is created equal: It is important to focus on investments that are at least one step removed from the end customer or rate-payer (i.e., business to business, or “B2B”). This has helped reduce the potential risk of political intervention, for example, when tariffs increase.
Own high-quality businesses that are essential to the global economy: Managers should focus on well-run businesses that are critical to customers and the local economies in which they operate. For example, look for managers who select assets that are driving the global economy forward, alongside artificial intelligence (“AI”), decarbonization and reshoring trends. To date, there has been strong broad political consensus supporting these trends, and we expect that sentiment should persist regardless of the outcome of upcoming elections.
In addition to managing risk at the investment level, we think the best risk mitigant is diversification by having a large number of assets across asset type, sector and geography.
A WORD ABOUT RISK
Investments in real estate-related instruments may be affected by economic, legal or environmental factors that affect property values, rents or occupancies of real estate. Infrastructure companies may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business, including high interest costs, high leverage, regulation costs, economic slowdown, surplus capacity, increased competition, lack of fuel availability and energy conservation policies.
Alternative investments often are speculative and include a high degree of risk. Investors could lose all or a substantial amount of their investment. High-yield bonds are subject to interest rate risk. When interest rates rise, bond prices fall; generally, the longer a bond’s maturity, the more sensitive it is to this risk. Yields are subject to change with economic conditions. Yield is only one factor that should be considered when making an investment decision.
The information in this publication is not and is not intended as investment advice, an indication of trading intent or holdings, or prediction of investment performance. Diversification does not guarantee a profit or protect against loss. Views and information expressed herein are subject to change at any time. Brookfield disclaims any responsibility to update such views and/or information. This information is deemed to be from reliable sources; however, Brookfield does not warrant its completeness or accuracy.
Opinions expressed herein are current opinions of Brookfield, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, and are subject to change without notice. Brookfield, including its subsidiaries and affiliates, assumes no responsibility to update such information or to notify clients of any changes. Any outlooks, forecasts or portfolio weightings presented herein are as of the date appearing on this material only and are also subject to change without notice. Past performance is not indicative of future performance, and the value of investments and the income derived from those investments can fluctuate.
FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS
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The information provided herein reflects Brookfield’s perspectives and beliefs as of the date of this commentary.
INDEX PROVIDER DISCLAIMER
The quoted indexes within this publication are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors. Index performance is shown for illustrative purposes only and does not predict or depict the performance of any investment. There may be material factors relevant to any such comparison, such as differences in volatility and regulatory and legal restrictions between the indexes shown and any investment in a Brookfield strategy, composite or fund. Brookfield obtained all index data from third-party index sponsors and believes the data to be accurate; however, Brookfield makes no representation regarding its accuracy. Indexes are unmanaged and cannot be purchased directly by investors.
Brookfield does not own or participate in the construction or day-to-day management of the indexes referenced in this document. The index information provided is for your information only and does not imply or predict that a Brookfield product will achieve similar results. This information is subject to change without notice. The indexes referenced in this document do not reflect any fees, expenses, sales charges or taxes. It is not possible to invest directly in an index. The index sponsors permit use of their indexes and related data on an “as is” basis, make no warranties regarding same, do not guarantee the suitability, quality, accuracy, timeliness and/or completeness of their index or any data included in, related to or derived therefrom, and assume no liability in connection with the use of the foregoing. The index sponsors have no liability for any direct, indirect, special, incidental, punitive, consequential or other damages (including loss of profits). The index sponsors do not sponsor, endorse or recommend Brookfield or any of its products or services. Unless otherwise noted, all indexes are total-return indexes.
INDEX DEFINITIONS
The Preqin Infrastructure Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private infrastructure portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
The Preqin Real Estate Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private real estate portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
The Preqin Private Equity Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private equity portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
The Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) seeks to measure the unlevered, gross of fee performance of U.S. middle market corporate loans, as represented by the asset-weighted performance of the underlying assets of Business Development Companies (BDCs), including both exchange-traded and unlisted BDCs, subject
to certain eligibility requirements.
The FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Real Estate Index is an unmanaged market- capitalization-weighted totalreturn index that consists of publicly traded equity REITs and listed property companies from developed markets.
The FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index gives participants an industry-defined interpretation of infrastructure and adjusts the exposure to certain infrastructure subsectors. The constituent weights are adjusted as part of the semi-annual review according to three broad industry sectors: 50% Utilities; 30% Transportation, including capping of 7.5% for railroads/railways; and a 20% mix of other sectors including pipelines, satellites and telecommunication towers. Company weights within each group are adjusted in proportion to their investable market capitalization.
The ICE BofA US High Yield Index tracks the performance of U.S.-dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market.
The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Global High Yield European Issuers Non-Financial 3% Constrained Ex Russia Index is a sub-index that contains all securities in the broader index except those from financial issuers or with Russia as their country of risk but caps issuer exposure at 3%. The index is rebalanced monthly. The dex is USD hedged.
The MSCI World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets.
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