Market / Infrastructure
Infrastructure Remains Resilient Amid Geopolitical Uncertainty
11.20.2024

While interest rates have captured the attention of global investors so far in 2024, so too have geopolitical events, namely a flurry of elections. This year, over half of the world’s population has taken part in democratic elections. For many businesses, a change in government leading to shifts in policy can add risk to their growth outlook.

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2024-year-of-elections

Source: Reuters. For illustrative purposes only.

However, infrastructure investments typically remain insulated to changes in government due to their critical nature. Moreover, if the investment manager is selective about the countries in which it invests, we believe exposure to the asset class can provide consistency in returns and help mitigate risk in an evolving geopolitical environment. Some critical characteristics of a country that should be considered before making an investment include established rule of law, strong capital markets, respect for private and foreign capital, ability to build scalable businesses, and the desire or need for private capital funding for high-quality infrastructure assets.

Moreover, we believe investors should back investment managers who focus on the following, when investing across the globe: 

Global scale, with a local operating model: Maintaining a local presence and having regional expertise with “boots on the ground” in all regions helps foster deal flow and facilitates management of assets. It is important to work closely with local strategic partners to improve the understanding of regional dynamics and potentially lower the level of risk when investing in new countries. 

Not all regulatory risk is created equal: It is important to focus on investments that are at least one step removed from the end customer or rate-payer (i.e., business to business, or “B2B”). This has helped reduce the potential risk of political intervention, for example, when tariffs increase. 

Own high-quality businesses that are essential to the global economy: Managers should focus on well-run businesses that are critical to customers and the local economies in which they operate. For example, look for managers who select assets that are driving the global economy forward, alongside artificial intelligence (“AI”), decarbonization and reshoring trends. To date, there has been strong broad political consensus supporting these trends, and we expect that sentiment should persist regardless of the outcome of upcoming elections. 

In addition to managing risk at the investment level, we think the best risk mitigant is diversification by having a large number of assets across asset type, sector and geography.

A WORD ABOUT RISK
Investments in real estate-related instruments may be affected by economic, legal or environmental factors that affect property values, rents or occupancies of real estate. Infrastructure companies may be subject to a variety of factors that may adversely affect their business, including high interest costs, high leverage, regulation costs, economic slowdown, surplus capacity, increased competition, lack of fuel availability and energy conservation policies.
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INDEX DEFINITIONS
The Preqin Infrastructure Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private infrastructure portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both  the start and end of the quarter.
The Preqin Real Estate Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on  average in their private real estate portfolios, based on the actual amount of money  invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
The Preqin Private Equity Index captures in an index the return earned by investors on average in their private equity portfolios, based on the actual amount of money invested in private capital partnerships. Each data point is individually calculated from the pool of closed-end funds for which comprehensive performance data is held, as of both the start and end of the quarter.
The Cliffwater Direct Lending Index (CDLI) seeks to measure the unlevered, gross of fee performance of U.S. middle market corporate loans, as represented by the asset-weighted performance of the underlying assets of Business Development Companies (BDCs), including both exchange-traded and unlisted BDCs, subject  
to certain eligibility requirements.
The FTSE EPRA Nareit Developed Real Estate Index is an unmanaged market- capitalization-weighted totalreturn index that consists of publicly traded equity REITs and listed property companies from developed markets.
The FTSE Global Core Infrastructure 50/50 Index gives participants an industry-defined interpretation of infrastructure and adjusts the exposure to certain infrastructure subsectors. The constituent weights are adjusted as part of the semi-annual review according to three  broad industry sectors: 50% Utilities; 30% Transportation, including capping of 7.5% for  railroads/railways; and a 20% mix of other sectors including pipelines, satellites and telecommunication towers. Company weights within each group are adjusted in proportion to their investable market capitalization.
The ICE BofA US High Yield Index tracks the performance of U.S.-dollar-denominated below-investment-grade corporate debt publicly issued in the U.S. domestic market.  
The ICE BofA Merrill Lynch Global High Yield European Issuers Non-Financial 3% Constrained Ex Russia Index is a sub-index that contains all securities in the broader index except those from financial issuers or with Russia as their country of risk but caps issuer exposure at 3%. The index is rebalanced monthly. The dex is USD hedged.
The MSCI World Index is a free-float-adjusted market-capitalization-weighted index that is designed to measure the equity market performance of developed markets. 

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